Yup. Disliking the guy is no reason for academic dishonesty though. He gave 70/30 odds. The key part about odds though is that they’re basically confidence ratings.
He was wrong and surprised, along with basically everyone else.
Guy came up with the method basically everyone uses to combine and aggregate polling data now, which is far more accurate than previous methods. It’s weird to say he’s an idiot.
Yup. Disliking the guy is no reason for academic dishonesty though. He gave 70/30 odds. The key part about odds though is that they’re basically confidence ratings.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
He was wrong and surprised, along with basically everyone else.
Guy came up with the method basically everyone uses to combine and aggregate polling data now, which is far more accurate than previous methods. It’s weird to say he’s an idiot.