cm0002@lemmy.world to memes@lemmy.world · 5 days agoConspiracieslemmy.mlexternal-linkmessage-square80fedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down10cross-posted to: memes@lemmy.ml
arrow-up11arrow-down1external-linkConspiracieslemmy.mlcm0002@lemmy.world to memes@lemmy.world · 5 days agomessage-square80fedilinkcross-posted to: memes@lemmy.ml
minus-squarezxqwas@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up0·edit-25 days agoIf you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct. You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct. Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%. Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.
If you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.
You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.
Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.
Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.