When they can exit a roundabout competently.
Depends on who you ask:
Depends on what you mean by “commercialized.”
My neighborhood has Waymo cars driving around all day every day. I can even pay them money to book a ride in one, like a Lyft or Uber. So in that sense, full self driving is commercialized.
Will consumers be able to buy a level 4 car in the next 1-2 years? No. While governments have given limited approvals for large-scale testing of self driving cars, the hurdles to selling anything like that to your average moron is far in the future. Governments will have to legislate all kinds of shit, including who is at fault in accidents and where they are allowed to drive. Insurance companies will have to figure out how to write contracts and how much to charge. And all of that ignores the technical challenges of getting it working properly and consistently in consumer vehicles.
Every car company has a financial incentive to, every year, say it’s a “couple years off” to keep investors intrigued.
Back when we all were a little hoodwinked by elon and didn’t know he was a complete, lying asshole, he said around 2014 or so it’d take just a couple of years. Then another couple. Then another couple.
I don’t really have faith it’ll ever be there in our lifetimes in a way that’s I’d trust.
Decades, if not longer.
its not near, but im sure some companies will claim they have it(and then get sued)
Within the current decade, according to Mercedes.
“According to what Mercedes wants shareholders to believe” is, I think, what you meant to say.
Remember, every company working on making self-driving cars has a strong incentive to constantly claim that results are “just around the corner”. Because shareholders are fucking idiots, and they’ll put their money into whoever bullshits them the most confidently.
every company working on making self-driving cars has a strong incentive to constantly claim that results are “just around the corner”
That’s not what the German carmakers do.
We are laughing at American companies who do such bigmouth claims all the time, and call them liars, and worse.
Need you be reminded that German carmakers were among those who rigged cars to cheat on emissions tests?
They got caught, but it proves they’ve been willing to lie and cheat and there’s no reason to believe that they’re not still willing, even if they fixed that particular problem.
Well done for being a victim of their bullshit.
Mercedes says “ten years” instead of “two” for exactly this reason. Compared to the “loudmouth Americans” it makes their claim look restrained, realistic, reasonable. It’s still bullshit, but it’s a flavour of bullshit designed to appeal to investors who imagine themselves as more discerning, smarter, less gullible.
The best cons work on people who think they aren’t gullible.
