Lol. Even among those less stupid, most didn’t hire junior developers for the last three years, to hedge their bets.
Well, it’s three years later, AI didn’t solve shit, and we are facing an entire missing cohort of senior developers.
We’ve seen this before - back when web frameworks “made all of us obsolete” back in 2003.-
Here’s what comes next:
Everyone who needs a senior developer gets to start bidding up the prices of the missing senior developers. Since there simply aren’t enough to go around, the “find out” phase will be punctuated.
Losing bidders get to pay 4x rates for 1/3 the output from consulting companies.
Cheers!
Source: I was made obsolete by web frameworks so hard that I entered a delusion where working with web frameworks just let us produce bigger buggier websites even faster - and where the demand for web developers skyrocketed and I made some seriously respectable money while helping train up junior developers to help address the severe shortage.
Wait, people really thought web frameworks would replace Devs? Which frameworks? 😂
People thought COBOL would let managers write code.
What.
It’s by design very verbose and “English”-like, like instead of x=y*z it would go “MULTIPLY y BY z GIVING x”, the idea was that it would read almost like natural language, so that non-tech staff could understand it.
Except that it’s not the syntax that makes programming hard, it’s the thought process, right?
Yes. COBOL can be excused because it was the first time anyone was going down that path. Everything that comes later, less so.
It’s very common. Every few years there is some no-code platform claiming no developers are needed anymore in any sector, not just web dev. Invariably these only work if you stay on the narrow path and of course the customer asks something outside of the easy path after the first demo so a lot of work by devs are needed to make of happen.
AI is just one more like that, but with hype on steroids.
Which frameworks? 😂
Ruby on Rails was probably the peak of the hype wave. It had a tutorial that any manager could follow to build a simple data driven website in minutes.
Is that a “framework”? Anyhow it was first released a year after you claimed this all happened.
No chance you have IRL friends.
Not sure what web framework “made you obsolete” in 2003. I don’t even think jQuery existed then let alone anything you could accurately call a framework
Edit: just looked it up, first jQuery release was 2006 so I’m not sure what you’re smoking but I want some
People genuinely thought ColdFusion would allow untrained businessmen to make complex websites with no coding, only markup. It could generously be described as a “web framework”, and it was released in 1995.
Wow. I forget that there are babies on the Internet, now.
There were back-end web frameworks as early as the 1990s. The Internet started long before JavaScript existed.
God I feel old, now. Fuck. Lol.
I’m assuming he means backend frameworks, like Ruby on Rails, Codeigniter, CakePHP, etc. That fits the timeframe, I think?
I’m placing my bet on Wordpress
Yes, also WordPress. I was told there would be no more developer jobs after WordPress became mainstream.
I kinda wish it included the dates on these. Not having them makes me a bit dubious
Can you imagine the absolute misery of working for someone like this.
A person who thinks developers are all useless, and has total contempt for any skills that aren’t “business” stuff.
A person who thinks tech is easy and you can “just” do this and “just” do that and everything will be done, always telling you “this is so easy I could do it myself” while any contribution they make only makes things worse, and if there’s any kind of hold-up it’s because you’re either “lazy” or “incompetent”
No thanks.
I never understood it, but business owners seem to have utter contempt for the people who actually make their money. I’m not talking about support staff, I mean the people that if they stay home, dollars aren’t getting printed for everyone else. In private EMS, the billing staff would constantly get parties and catering and gift cards and shit, while the crews actually running the calls and writing the billable reports got third-hand furniture, moldy stations, ambulances held together with a fucking wish, and constant bellyaching about how paying the crews minimum wage was costing the company too much money. I’m starting to notice the same pattern pop up between the dev team and the product team as my software company scales.
Haha yeah… imagine… right.
My first boss was a “just” guy. Thankfully he was also pro dev, being one himself, but sadly he was completely self-taught. This led to some interesting ideas, such as:
“We should not migrate anything to, or start any new projects in, .net framework 3. We should become the experts in .net framework 2, so people who need .net 2 solutions come to us.”
“Agile means we do less documentation.” (But we were already doing no documentation)
“Why are you guys still making that common functions class library? I just copy a .vb file into every project I work on, that way I can change it to suit the new project.” (This one led to the most amusing compound error I’ve fixed for a fellow dev.)
Good guy, all in all. But frustrating to work for often.
deleted by creator
The “now the tech is done can we rationalise the dev team?” fallacy just drives me up the wall. Mostly because I’ve actually worked in environments where those questions were seriously pondered and had to defend against it.
This man doesn’t even know the difference between AGI and a text generation program, so it doesn’t surprise me he couldn’t tell the difference between that program and real, living human beings.
He also seems to have deleted his LinkedIn account.
AGI is currently just a buzzword anyway…
Microsoft defines AGI in contracts in dollars of earnings…
If you’d travel in time 5 years back and show the currently best GPT to someone, he/she would probably accept it as AGI.
I’ve seen multiple experts in German television explaining that LLMs will reach the AGI state within a few years…
(That does not mean that the CEO guy isn’t a fool. Let’s wait for the first larger problem that requires not writing new code, but rather dealing with a bug, something not documented, or similar…)
LLMs can’t become AGIs. They have no ability to actually reason. What they can do is use predigested reasoning to fake it. It’s particularly obvious with certain classes of proble., when they fall down. I think the fact it fakes so well tells us more about human intelligence than AI.
That being said, LLMs will likely be a critical part of a future AGI. Right now, they are a lobotomised speech centre. Different groups are already starting to tie them to other forms of AI. If we can crack building a reasoning engine, then a full AGI is possible. An LLM might even form its internal communication method, akin to our internal monologue.
While I haven’t read the paper, the comment’s explanation seems to make sense. It supposedly contains a mathematical proof that making AGI from a finite dataset is a NP-hard problem. I have to read it and parse out the reasoning, if true, it would make for a great argument in cases like these.
If that is true, how does the brain work?
Call everything you have ever experienced the finite dataset.
Constructing your brain from dna works in a timely manner.
Then training it does too, you get visibly smarter with time, so on a linear scale.I think part of the problem is that LLMs stop learning at the end of the training phase, while a human never stops taking in new information.
Part of why I think AGI is so far away is because to run the training in real-time like a human, it would take more compute than currently exists. They should be focusing on doing more with less compute to find new more efficient algorithms and architectures, not throwing more and more GPUs at the problem. Right now 10x the GPUs gets you like 5-10% better accuracy on whatever benchmarks, which is not a sustainable direction to go.
Dude’s clearly a dunce. There was never any chance he was gonna succeed.
I found the screenshot order confusing at first, and it’s not OPs fault since the original article got the screenshots backwards too
From the article:
Synopsis Wes Winder, a Canadian software developer, is facing backlash after his controversial decision to replace his development team with Al backfired. Once a trending topic on Reddit and a source of widespread ridicule, Winder is now in an awkward position as he turns to Linkedln in search of web developers to hire.
Fixed the alignment for ya
AI is just one of the many technologies that only exists to pollute the earth and maintain the illusion of scarcity within the labour pool. the added benefit of a bunch of new faces to circulate the same hoarded wealth helps too.
My mother is currently like, AI will eliminate all junior jobs and everyone will be on the managerial position. It’s honestly exhausting. Damn, when will the hype end???
well this happens because people have zero understanding of what programming is. they think that programmers have memorised some “dictionaries” that translate human specifications to machine code with complete disregard for problem solving and design part of things.
t’ve always wondered, why lots of people think that if something you do is technical, then it’s inherently not creative? You sure have a bit lesser degree of self-expression, but self-expression is mere an aspect of creativity
Its easy for a passerby to appreciate the work, skill, and creativity that goes into a painting or song. Its hard for the average person to infer those things looking at an electrical box or a plumbing network. An electrician knows when they’re looking at good up to code wiring and a plumber can tell if the plumbing can be put together right. Those are things the average person has no concept of and doesn’t want to think about all unless they have to. One provides instant artistic appeal while having no practical value, the other provides practical value but its systems are too complicated for the average person to appreciate in totality.
This idiot even created a fake account to reply to the comments.
What does it say? Clicking that link just takes me to a login screen.
The original dev lives in Canada. He made this fake account called “Armin Lebedev living in the Netherlands” and working for a company that doesn’t exist (no result anywhere in all the search engines). He created this account to reply to other people, he has no other activity. All his replies are like:
Wes - Never take this post down. It’s hilarious how people don’t understand that this post was made on Dec 9, a whole 11 days prior to the tweet. Complete inability to read past a headline, and so confident about it too. This will go into the history books about how silly the anti-AI sentiment was.
I will just restate this fact about reality: Dec 20 comes 11 days after Dec 9.
That is indeed a screenshot. The tweet was made on Dec 20 (just like I told you). A date that happened 11 days after Dec 9.
Yes, that’s him. But did you know that Dec 9 comes before Dec 20?
He’s stalking a bit, spamming a lot, he wants to correct every reply to the post for no reason because it’s not the same person of course (/s). This magical account that was created after the post is obviously fake and the same guy.